弹道导弹落点预报是预警系统中重要的一个环节,其精确度直接影响预警系统的性能。文中从弹道导弹模型出发,建立了弹道导弹精细化物理模型,从地球椭圆度、大气阻力以及地球自转三方面分析影响弹道目标落点精度的因素,对落点预报估算器进行修正。最后,通过仿真验证了算法的正确性,分析了不同因素对落点精度的影响,并给出了影响中近程弹道导弹落点预报精度的主要影响因素。

Ballistic missile impact point estimation is a key progress in air defense and anti-missile early warning system( EWS), the capability of EWS is affected by the accuracy of the impact point directly. This paper build a refined physical model of ballistic missile, the factors of ellipticity of earth, drag of atmosphere and rotation of the earth are considered. A comparison of different factors is presented by simulation, the analysis of the main factors affecting of impact point accuracy is described and some conclusions are drawn in the end.

TN958